I am spending a week in the field trying to get a better understanding of melon sector in Albania, what the opportunities are and where our project should target our activities to have the greatest impact. This is my third trip to Albania in five months, and I thought I was getting to know the country fairly well, but I have been shocked.
For a change, my shock is in response to the incredible potential in this country, both in the agricultural sector and in the tourism sector. These farmers are incredibly advanced. I use Croatia as a comparison as it is considered the most advanced of the Balkan countries not yet in the EU, and I spent a few weeks working there this year. In Croatia my company introduced new greenhouse technologies over the past couple of years, including fertigation – a highly efficient method for fertilizing using crystallized fertilizers distributed directly to the plants through drip irrigation. Only a few farmers in Croatia have started adopting this method. Here it seems that the majority of farmers are using fertigation, and good greenhouses, trellising, etc. [If this is incredibly boring skip to the next paragraph.] It turns out that Albania has at least one advantage that has not been considered. Given the hardship here over the past half century or so, many, many Albanians have gone to other countries to find work. Many of them work seasonally on farms in Greece. As a result, they have brought back with them the latest European agricultural technology which has already been adopted here. For me, it is very exciting to see. Of course, just because the farmers know how to grow, does not mean that we do not have a job to do. Every farmer I have spoken to has said that they need better markets. I also know that they need to be better organized (to consolidate production and save costs). We still have our work cut out for us.
The other shock on this trip has been the spectacular scenery, idyllic beaches, lush mountains for hiking, and the incredible array of historical sites. (Pictures will be added when I get home). In the past few days I have gone hiking and watched the sunset from the top of a mountain; visited a thousand year old church in the middle of a “castle” – an ancient hilltop city that is still inhabited today; visited a 19th century castle on an island; and been awed by the crystal clarity of the turquoise sea on private beaches as I drive by.
More and more I am amazed at the speed of change in this country. I take photos knowing that in just a few years time, things will be very different as development takes hold.
I have also heard rumors that during the economically challenging period following the change in government, Greeks would cross the border and offer Albanians a small sum to cut down their olive trees so that the Greeks would be able to take over the Albanian market share. Others have told me that this is not true, but at the very least, this story demonstrates the lack of trust of the Greeks next door.
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Starting over
Starting over works very well as a strategy to get over an ex or even maybe to reinvigorate your life with a career change, but as an economic strategy for a country, it is questionable, particularly when taken literally. After the fall of communism in Albania in 1990 (after the death of the evil dictator Hoxha a couple of years earlier), the government of the time decided to start over – literally. They told the people that they should destroy all that which was created by the previous regime, and they meant it quite literally. For some reason, the government had somehow been given the impression that they had a blank check from the United States for reconstruction, so they told the people to cut down the orange groves, ruin irrigation systems and destroy factories, taking them apart piece by piece for scrap metal. The people obeyed, but they are still waiting for the blank check. Today as I drove to southern Albania I saw an incredible system of hill terracing with irrigation, but the hills were bare. My colleagues told me that the entire valley used to be green with fruit trees, but the trees were cut down in the early 90’s and the people are still waiting for the US to help them replant.
Is it any wander then that these desperate and unpracticed new capitalists invested so heavily in pyramid investment schemes that appeared in the mid 90’s, especially when initially people did earn a hefty profit, sometimes doubling their investment within 6 months. They didn’t understand that the only way for everyone to make money in these schemes was for people to keep investing more and more. Not surprisingly, cracks started to appear in 1996 and by 1997 they had all collapsed, putting desperate people in an even more desperate situation. The desperation became anger and violence broke out across the country. Thousands died.
It had taken me a while to understand, but expectations were so high when the evil communist government fell, and the promises made were not met. Those include promises made (or implied) by the US government, and yet, when Bushy (brain) was here earlier this year, he was treated like the long lost son with people ruffling his hair as he walked through the crowd. Maybe this naiveté is also a root cause.
Is it any wander then that these desperate and unpracticed new capitalists invested so heavily in pyramid investment schemes that appeared in the mid 90’s, especially when initially people did earn a hefty profit, sometimes doubling their investment within 6 months. They didn’t understand that the only way for everyone to make money in these schemes was for people to keep investing more and more. Not surprisingly, cracks started to appear in 1996 and by 1997 they had all collapsed, putting desperate people in an even more desperate situation. The desperation became anger and violence broke out across the country. Thousands died.
It had taken me a while to understand, but expectations were so high when the evil communist government fell, and the promises made were not met. Those include promises made (or implied) by the US government, and yet, when Bushy (brain) was here earlier this year, he was treated like the long lost son with people ruffling his hair as he walked through the crowd. Maybe this naiveté is also a root cause.
Saturday, September 15, 2007
Home Away from Home?
This is my third trip to Albania in 5 months, for a total of 7 weeks and I think that by the end of this trip, I will have spent more time in Albania so far this year, than I have at home! It is starting to feel like home, and it’s not just because of the amount of time I’ve spent here. I really like some of my Albanian colleagues and I feel like I have an instant social life when I arrive with people I really enjoy spending time with, which is a pleasant change from usual work travel.
Today I had my first day in the field in Northern Albania – one hour North of Tirana, which is in the center of the country. I forget sometimes how small this place is. It’s been a while since I was out in the field interviewing farmers and trying to figure out what the key issues are that the project can address to help them boost their incomes. I’m doing an analysis of the melon sector here. It’s such a feel-good assignment; thinking about watermelon just makes me smile. Today I was given 5 of them freshly picked from the field.
On the way home, we stopped off in the town of Kruya visiting Skanderberg’s castle. He’s the Albanian hero that defeated the Turks and (temporarily) prevented Turkish occupation. We ended the day with a meal of delicious Albanian cheeses, olives and pizza (veggie options are somewhat limited) watching the colors of the tangerine sunset reflected in the stone of the mountain face in front of us.
Tomorrow there is more to look forward to. I am going hiking in the mountains with one of my favorite Albanians. I’m looking forward to spending a day out of civilization in this spectacular scenery. And it doesn’t end there. On Monday I leave for a week-long tour of southern Albania, hitting all the melon producing areas, which happen to be some of the most beautiful spots in Albania, including the coast across the straight from Corfu. More photos and postings to follow.
Today I had my first day in the field in Northern Albania – one hour North of Tirana, which is in the center of the country. I forget sometimes how small this place is. It’s been a while since I was out in the field interviewing farmers and trying to figure out what the key issues are that the project can address to help them boost their incomes. I’m doing an analysis of the melon sector here. It’s such a feel-good assignment; thinking about watermelon just makes me smile. Today I was given 5 of them freshly picked from the field.
On the way home, we stopped off in the town of Kruya visiting Skanderberg’s castle. He’s the Albanian hero that defeated the Turks and (temporarily) prevented Turkish occupation. We ended the day with a meal of delicious Albanian cheeses, olives and pizza (veggie options are somewhat limited) watching the colors of the tangerine sunset reflected in the stone of the mountain face in front of us.
Tomorrow there is more to look forward to. I am going hiking in the mountains with one of my favorite Albanians. I’m looking forward to spending a day out of civilization in this spectacular scenery. And it doesn’t end there. On Monday I leave for a week-long tour of southern Albania, hitting all the melon producing areas, which happen to be some of the most beautiful spots in Albania, including the coast across the straight from Corfu. More photos and postings to follow.
Bad start
I've never had such a difficult time getting out of the US. I showed up at the airport at my scheduled time on Monday and breezed through the check in. I'd opted to fly out of Reagan and have an extra hop through New York to avoid the nightmarish check in at Dulles. As I arrived at my gate I was feeling quite cocky about being so clever, maybe that was my undoing.
What they had neglected to tell me at the check-in counter is that there were major delays. I ended up spending 4 hours in the airport waiting for a flight and then trying to reschedule when I realized that I would miss my connections. Then giving up and trying to get my luggage back. I ended up going home without my luggage, extremely frustrated, with a crazy taxi driver who had a fan blowing in my face, was whistling, constantly tapping the breaks, and who didn't know where my neighborhood was.
Round two. On Tuesday, September 11th, I went back to Reagan and basically had a repeate experience, minus checking-in any bags. Even though the woman at the check-in counter remembered me from the day before, she told me the flights were on time when they were already running late. After waiting until after my flight was supposed to have left, and seeing the hoard of New Yorkers becoming increasingly ticked off, I decided to explore other options. I finally found a very helpful Delta employee who completely re-routed my trip through Atlanta. The only consolation was that I did get to fly business class across the Atlantic to try and make up for my inconvenience.
Needless to say, I had to do without my luggage for my first couple of days in Albania (yes, that is where I now am), but I was very impressed that it actually arrived at the end of day 2.
What they had neglected to tell me at the check-in counter is that there were major delays. I ended up spending 4 hours in the airport waiting for a flight and then trying to reschedule when I realized that I would miss my connections. Then giving up and trying to get my luggage back. I ended up going home without my luggage, extremely frustrated, with a crazy taxi driver who had a fan blowing in my face, was whistling, constantly tapping the breaks, and who didn't know where my neighborhood was.
Round two. On Tuesday, September 11th, I went back to Reagan and basically had a repeate experience, minus checking-in any bags. Even though the woman at the check-in counter remembered me from the day before, she told me the flights were on time when they were already running late. After waiting until after my flight was supposed to have left, and seeing the hoard of New Yorkers becoming increasingly ticked off, I decided to explore other options. I finally found a very helpful Delta employee who completely re-routed my trip through Atlanta. The only consolation was that I did get to fly business class across the Atlantic to try and make up for my inconvenience.
Needless to say, I had to do without my luggage for my first couple of days in Albania (yes, that is where I now am), but I was very impressed that it actually arrived at the end of day 2.
Tuesday, September 04, 2007
Friday, July 06, 2007
Rubber
Rubber is the major source of income for most Liberians before during and after the war. Firestone is the largest buyer and has the worlds largest rubber plantation here in Liberia, but still buys half of their rubber from smallholders. During the war trees were tapped illegally by a method known as Haraka or slaughter tapping (see photos below) which extracts the most latex but causes irreparable damage to the trees. As a result up to 80 percent of the national rubber tree population needs to be replaced in the next few years. This is a major undertaking in a country that is barley through a major war that destroyed most basic infrastructure.
I have been talking to rubber farmers and many are already starting to replant, but they have no access to technical information on what tree varieties to plant, how to care for the stumps once they are planted including what crops grow well with rubber saplings while they are young, and no one is discouraging them from clearing new land. As a result indigent farmers are investing their money, time and effort on transplanting seedlings from traditional varieties that are much lower-yielding than the new improved varieties; they are not properly taking care of the seedlings resulting in greater losses; and maybe most concerning, they are clearing new land for new plantations. Many farmers and are only tapping a small portion of their rubber trees where they have cleared the brush while the rest of the farm is completely overgrown. Rather than clearing a new area, they should clear existing plantations (and use the discarded rubber trees for making charcoal – saving other trees from this fate).
The world price of natural rubber is very high at the moment because of the high cost of synthetic rubber which is a petroleum-derived product. The Liberia rubber industry was badly affected by the war, but it is gradually starting to recover, greatly helped by the high price. And the price in Liberia may go up even more. There is a new rubber buyer about to enter the market – a Chinese company which is building a huge processing plant to produce tires for the ever-growing Chinese auto industry. The company has no plantation of their own, so they will be entirely dependent on buying from smallholders. The other big rubber companies are worried that the Chinese firm try and put them out of business.
The long-term potential for rubber in Liberia is undoubted, but there will be a slump for 7 years while the newly planted trees grow large enough to be tapped. Sadly, the next 7 years are when the Liberian economy will need the biggest push to help move people out of poverty and given them an incentive to maintain peace. Right now, the majority of Liberians live on less than $.50 a day.
I have been talking to rubber farmers and many are already starting to replant, but they have no access to technical information on what tree varieties to plant, how to care for the stumps once they are planted including what crops grow well with rubber saplings while they are young, and no one is discouraging them from clearing new land. As a result indigent farmers are investing their money, time and effort on transplanting seedlings from traditional varieties that are much lower-yielding than the new improved varieties; they are not properly taking care of the seedlings resulting in greater losses; and maybe most concerning, they are clearing new land for new plantations. Many farmers and are only tapping a small portion of their rubber trees where they have cleared the brush while the rest of the farm is completely overgrown. Rather than clearing a new area, they should clear existing plantations (and use the discarded rubber trees for making charcoal – saving other trees from this fate).
The world price of natural rubber is very high at the moment because of the high cost of synthetic rubber which is a petroleum-derived product. The Liberia rubber industry was badly affected by the war, but it is gradually starting to recover, greatly helped by the high price. And the price in Liberia may go up even more. There is a new rubber buyer about to enter the market – a Chinese company which is building a huge processing plant to produce tires for the ever-growing Chinese auto industry. The company has no plantation of their own, so they will be entirely dependent on buying from smallholders. The other big rubber companies are worried that the Chinese firm try and put them out of business.
The long-term potential for rubber in Liberia is undoubted, but there will be a slump for 7 years while the newly planted trees grow large enough to be tapped. Sadly, the next 7 years are when the Liberian economy will need the biggest push to help move people out of poverty and given them an incentive to maintain peace. Right now, the majority of Liberians live on less than $.50 a day.
Monday, July 02, 2007
Taylor’s farm
Unexpectedly one of my stops was at Charles Taylor’s farm. His wife, an elected Senator (see photo below) now owns the farm and is allowing one of the associations to use some land for a rubber tree nursery. I’ve been told that this property was never farmed, but had a different use - it was where much of the killing of Taylor’s regime took place. I tested the water on the association members views of Taylor making reference to his trial but received mixed messages from them. I’ve never been in a place where the feelings towards rebels and the former dictator are so complicated. In fact rebels is not a word used here because it would be hard to say which faction was actually doing the rebelling. Instead they are called fighters or combatants and the term ex-combatants is so widely used that one tapper I interviewed referred to himself as being an ex-combatant during the war. Many of the rubber tappers I am meeting with are ex-combatants from one side or another. Rebel leaders and the former dictator’s wife are still in national politics as Senators, while Taylor’s war crime trial gets underway. There is even an organization here that is working to clear Taylor’s name, claiming that he is innocent. They even have a website (http://www.fortaylor.net/). Many organizations are also well connected politically with one faction or another so you have to be careful about what you say.
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Life on the Road
The past week has been very hectic, as my driver subtly pointed out today. Fortunately tomorrow (Friday) is a pretty slow day and then if it is not raining, I will take the UN flight back on Saturday. If it is raining, I will have to drive, as the UN does not fly in the rain (yes, it is that scary). Of course, if you are reading this, then I have made it to Monrovia and am back online, so I survived the flight (or the drive). I wanted to share a few vignettes from my trip.
I arrived in Gbarnga (pronounced Banga) just before sunset on Monday and headed to my very rustic guest house. Most expats refuse to stay in Gbarnga because it is only three hours from Monrovia and there are no decent facilities in the town. I couldn’t stand being in the room any longer than necessary so I sat out on the front porch and ate my dinner. As I ate my crackers, peanut butter and canned corn, I noticed a huge flock of birds circling overhead. Over about 45 minutes, the birds gradually circled down towards where I was sitting like a planes on a holding pattern waiting for a runway, but somehow flying in unison. The guard of the guesthouse who was sitting on the front steps saw me watching them and told me they would land in the five palm trees directly in front of the porch. He was right. Eventually the flock got close enough to the landing destination that a few birds looked like they fell out of the sky into the palms. Very quickly the entire flock of starlings bedded down for the night. I estimate that there were a least 100,000 birds keeping me company at the guesthouse. (I have a great recording of the ruckus which I will post if anyone can tell me how to post a soundfile.)
Being a vegetarian traveling in rural Africa sucks – there is no other way to put it. Restaurants generally only serve meat dishes. Fortunately, I was prepared and had stopped off at Al Jawadi’s Lebanese supermarket before leaving town. The store has just about anything you could need, but at a price. I have been surviving on crackers, peanut butter, canned corn, carrots or beans, fruit cups, Pringles, and of course power bars. The culinary highlight of the week was being provided lunch by one of our local partners. When the NGO director asked if I would like to have some rice (as in rice and sauce), my heart dropped because it is very rude to refuse a meal, but also difficult to explain being vegetarian. I told him of my strange dietary habits and he replied that they had prepared a special vegetarian meal for me. He had called the office in Monrovia ahead of time to find out what I would like to eat. What incredible hospitality and generosity, and the meal of grumpy (peanut) sauce and cabbage with rice was delicious. It’s making my mouth water thinking about it as it was my last real meal and it was two days ago.
There is no running water anywhere in the country except for a small pocket of Monrovia. Many places that cater to expats have water delivered to tanks on the roofs of the buildings which means water actually comes out of the tap even though there is no municipal source. Outside of Monrovia, the only option for bathing is by bucket. It actually reminds me of sauna bathing in Russia, but in much less appealing surrounds. Also, generators are often only on for a very brief period of time at guest houses between 7-10pm, so bucket bathing is done in semi darkness in internal rooms. Ahh to stand in a lighted room under a flowing showerhead and wash the week’s worth of residual soap scum off my skin! One good thing about this kind of travel is that it really makes me appreciate the little things I wouldn’t even notice at home.
I arrived in Gbarnga (pronounced Banga) just before sunset on Monday and headed to my very rustic guest house. Most expats refuse to stay in Gbarnga because it is only three hours from Monrovia and there are no decent facilities in the town. I couldn’t stand being in the room any longer than necessary so I sat out on the front porch and ate my dinner. As I ate my crackers, peanut butter and canned corn, I noticed a huge flock of birds circling overhead. Over about 45 minutes, the birds gradually circled down towards where I was sitting like a planes on a holding pattern waiting for a runway, but somehow flying in unison. The guard of the guesthouse who was sitting on the front steps saw me watching them and told me they would land in the five palm trees directly in front of the porch. He was right. Eventually the flock got close enough to the landing destination that a few birds looked like they fell out of the sky into the palms. Very quickly the entire flock of starlings bedded down for the night. I estimate that there were a least 100,000 birds keeping me company at the guesthouse. (I have a great recording of the ruckus which I will post if anyone can tell me how to post a soundfile.)
Being a vegetarian traveling in rural Africa sucks – there is no other way to put it. Restaurants generally only serve meat dishes. Fortunately, I was prepared and had stopped off at Al Jawadi’s Lebanese supermarket before leaving town. The store has just about anything you could need, but at a price. I have been surviving on crackers, peanut butter, canned corn, carrots or beans, fruit cups, Pringles, and of course power bars. The culinary highlight of the week was being provided lunch by one of our local partners. When the NGO director asked if I would like to have some rice (as in rice and sauce), my heart dropped because it is very rude to refuse a meal, but also difficult to explain being vegetarian. I told him of my strange dietary habits and he replied that they had prepared a special vegetarian meal for me. He had called the office in Monrovia ahead of time to find out what I would like to eat. What incredible hospitality and generosity, and the meal of grumpy (peanut) sauce and cabbage with rice was delicious. It’s making my mouth water thinking about it as it was my last real meal and it was two days ago.
There is no running water anywhere in the country except for a small pocket of Monrovia. Many places that cater to expats have water delivered to tanks on the roofs of the buildings which means water actually comes out of the tap even though there is no municipal source. Outside of Monrovia, the only option for bathing is by bucket. It actually reminds me of sauna bathing in Russia, but in much less appealing surrounds. Also, generators are often only on for a very brief period of time at guest houses between 7-10pm, so bucket bathing is done in semi darkness in internal rooms. Ahh to stand in a lighted room under a flowing showerhead and wash the week’s worth of residual soap scum off my skin! One good thing about this kind of travel is that it really makes me appreciate the little things I wouldn’t even notice at home.
Heading Up-Country
Most expats talk of going up-country like it is going to the ends of the earth. It is pretty rough, but this field trip is opening my eyes to the fact that Liberia must have been quite well-developed before the war.
What most surprised me is how green the country is. Most of the land is still forested. Thick lush verdant tropical beauty bursting with bird calls. Liberia has one major factor in its favor – it lacks the high populations and land pressure of many other African countries. The last census was before the war, but the population is estimated at 3-4 million people with half of that in Monrovia and the other 1.5 to 2 million people spread around a country that is roughly the size of Ohio. The countryside is dotted with what must have once been small but well kept houses of painted cement with decorative awnings. They are now ruins pockmarked with bullet holes and surrounded by newly built mud and stick structures with palm frond roves.
There are also established by overgrown plantations of rubber, palm oil, cocoa and even coffee. That is not something that I have seen in other places in Africa. The trees are still producing, but definitely need to be cleared of scrub, better tended, and harvested. Another asset is the existing foreign investments on the ground primarily in rubber. It means that there is an instant market and the rubber sector could bounce back (no pun intended) fairly quickly. Most roads are in terrible condition. The main road north that I took North was tar but has not been repaved since before the war (14 years ago). The dirt roads are being graded, but after one heavy rainfall there is already significant damage.
The people are warm and friendly but I can’t help but wonder at what horrors they have experienced. Still, there is great potential here and I think there is reason to hope for the future.
What most surprised me is how green the country is. Most of the land is still forested. Thick lush verdant tropical beauty bursting with bird calls. Liberia has one major factor in its favor – it lacks the high populations and land pressure of many other African countries. The last census was before the war, but the population is estimated at 3-4 million people with half of that in Monrovia and the other 1.5 to 2 million people spread around a country that is roughly the size of Ohio. The countryside is dotted with what must have once been small but well kept houses of painted cement with decorative awnings. They are now ruins pockmarked with bullet holes and surrounded by newly built mud and stick structures with palm frond roves.
There are also established by overgrown plantations of rubber, palm oil, cocoa and even coffee. That is not something that I have seen in other places in Africa. The trees are still producing, but definitely need to be cleared of scrub, better tended, and harvested. Another asset is the existing foreign investments on the ground primarily in rubber. It means that there is an instant market and the rubber sector could bounce back (no pun intended) fairly quickly. Most roads are in terrible condition. The main road north that I took North was tar but has not been repaved since before the war (14 years ago). The dirt roads are being graded, but after one heavy rainfall there is already significant damage.
The people are warm and friendly but I can’t help but wonder at what horrors they have experienced. Still, there is great potential here and I think there is reason to hope for the future.
Sunday, July 01, 2007
Armed Forces of Liberia
The entire standing army of the Armed Forces of Liberia is 102 soldiers (including a few women). The first and only eight officers of this group were commissioned last month. That is currently the entire army available to maintain peace when the 15,000 UN peacekeepers pull out. Hopefully the UN is slow in their planned retreat.
The effort to rebuild the Armed Forces of Liberia is being led by the US through contractors, and it is a thankless and complicated task. While I am not a big fan of military might, the need for a strong army that is respected enough to keep the peace is clear in Liberia. Beyond the issue of training and outfitting a new army, is the fact that the head of the army has not yet been identified. It is unlikely that this responsibility will fall on anyone in the army given how green the eight new officers are, but other options are equally scary. It could fall to the Ministry of Defense, which would politicize the army (and as recent US history demonstrates, this is generally not a good idea). Then there are the former rebel leaders that would love to head the new army. This sounds like a funny idea, but some of them are currently active in domestic politics in elected positions including Prince Johnson who assassinated Doe (the former Dictator), and even Charles Taylor’s wife, although there has bee no mention of any desire on her part to lead the army. In addition, the government has made a decision not to feed the soldiers in their barracks, but to make them pay for their own meals out of their measly salaries. If they bought every meal that was offered to them in the canteen, they would be in debt by the end of the month. This does not make for happy soldiers. On top of that, peace here is so tenuous and if conflict were to break out again, it is highly probable that the soldiers being trained today could lead factions in the next conflict.
Peace does reign in Liberia right now and I do not worry about a sudden flare up, but a few scenarios I believe would push tensions over the edge here:
· Regional conflict – Both Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast peace agreements seem to be holding for the moment, but Guinea still has the potential to disintegrate into conflict. A few months ago when Guinea was experiencing riots violently suppressed by the government, Liberians were being offered US$100 salary to go and fight in Guinea. Life is cheap.
· Rapid UNMIL withrdawl. All guns were banned in Liberia when UNMIL came in (except of course for the peacekeepers who still drive around the capital and rural areas with machine gun mounted vehicles and tanks). The police only recently were given back their guns. Local capacity for keeping peace is clearly not yet established but there are rumors that UN forces are to be reduced over the next 6 months.
· I hate to even write this because it would be tragic if it were to happen, but Ellen’s assassination would also certainly lead to chaos. There is a personality cult supporting her. The people love her, and so have patience with the slow pace of progress in rebuilding the infrastructure and the economy. But she is tackling corruption without mincing words, and surely is making enemies in the process.
These are some of the complexities of keeping peace without becoming a foreign occupier, which I can now understand sometimes seems like the safest option (but would still be unsuccessful in the long run as we see in Iraq).
The entire standing army of the Armed Forces of Liberia is 102 soldiers (including a few women). The first and only eight officers of this group were commissioned last month. That is currently the entire army available to maintain peace when the 15,000 UN peacekeepers pull out. Hopefully the UN is slow in their planned retreat.
The effort to rebuild the Armed Forces of Liberia is being led by the US through contractors, and it is a thankless and complicated task. While I am not a big fan of military might, the need for a strong army that is respected enough to keep the peace is clear in Liberia. Beyond the issue of training and outfitting a new army, is the fact that the head of the army has not yet been identified. It is unlikely that this responsibility will fall on anyone in the army given how green the eight new officers are, but other options are equally scary. It could fall to the Ministry of Defense, which would politicize the army (and as recent US history demonstrates, this is generally not a good idea). Then there are the former rebel leaders that would love to head the new army. This sounds like a funny idea, but some of them are currently active in domestic politics in elected positions including Prince Johnson who assassinated Doe (the former Dictator), and even Charles Taylor’s wife, although there has bee no mention of any desire on her part to lead the army. In addition, the government has made a decision not to feed the soldiers in their barracks, but to make them pay for their own meals out of their measly salaries. If they bought every meal that was offered to them in the canteen, they would be in debt by the end of the month. This does not make for happy soldiers. On top of that, peace here is so tenuous and if conflict were to break out again, it is highly probable that the soldiers being trained today could lead factions in the next conflict.
Peace does reign in Liberia right now and I do not worry about a sudden flare up, but a few scenarios I believe would push tensions over the edge here:
· Regional conflict – Both Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast peace agreements seem to be holding for the moment, but Guinea still has the potential to disintegrate into conflict. A few months ago when Guinea was experiencing riots violently suppressed by the government, Liberians were being offered US$100 salary to go and fight in Guinea. Life is cheap.
· Rapid UNMIL withrdawl. All guns were banned in Liberia when UNMIL came in (except of course for the peacekeepers who still drive around the capital and rural areas with machine gun mounted vehicles and tanks). The police only recently were given back their guns. Local capacity for keeping peace is clearly not yet established but there are rumors that UN forces are to be reduced over the next 6 months.
· I hate to even write this because it would be tragic if it were to happen, but Ellen’s assassination would also certainly lead to chaos. There is a personality cult supporting her. The people love her, and so have patience with the slow pace of progress in rebuilding the infrastructure and the economy. But she is tackling corruption without mincing words, and surely is making enemies in the process.
These are some of the complexities of keeping peace without becoming a foreign occupier, which I can now understand sometimes seems like the safest option (but would still be unsuccessful in the long run as we see in Iraq).
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Whereabouts
I wanted to let all my faithful readers know that I will not have access to internet, email or blogger for the next week. I am traveling up-country into rural Liberia to continue my work. I know it is going to be a fascinating road trip and I am really looking forward to getting out of Monrovia. But services in Monrovia are practically non-existant and they are even worse elsewhere so I'll be lucky to find more than a bucket to wash myself with and a cot to throw a mosquito net over. I will keep writing while I am traveling and will have lots to post when I return next weekend.
I had hoped to leave off with a couple of postings about this weekend. I had a great day at the beach yesterday, a great hash run today, and a really interesting conversation with someone who is helping to train the new Liberian army of 102 soldiers. But it is now after 11:30pm, I still have not packed and I am getting on the road bright and early tomorrow to try and catch some farmers selling at a market on my way out of town. So this weekend's installments will also have to wait until next weekend.
Stay tuned...
I had hoped to leave off with a couple of postings about this weekend. I had a great day at the beach yesterday, a great hash run today, and a really interesting conversation with someone who is helping to train the new Liberian army of 102 soldiers. But it is now after 11:30pm, I still have not packed and I am getting on the road bright and early tomorrow to try and catch some farmers selling at a market on my way out of town. So this weekend's installments will also have to wait until next weekend.
Stay tuned...
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