Context

This is by far the slowest reconnaissance trip that I have ever been on. Yesterday we had one meeting at 5pm and spent the day in the office setting up meetings and reading documents. Today was a bit busier with one unhelpful meeting at noon and an interesting visit to a progressive fruit and vegetable trader in the afternoon. Unfortunately there is really not enough to do for two people and I am feeling a little stifled by my colleague. Ahh well, hopefully things will pick up.

I have decided to stay in Serbia an extra day and not take the train to Croatia until Sunday so that I can spend one day in the city of Belgrade exploring and seeing something other than the inside of offices. Interestingly, there is a national election on Sunday. Unlike some places, it is expected to be peaceful regardless of the outcome, but no one really knows what that outcome will be. There are seven political parties which are estimated to receive between 5 and 35 percent of the vote, so there will have to be a coalition government, but none of the 7 are all that keen to work together.

Even more interestingly, the timing of the election has a lot to do with Kosovo. The Serbs view Kosovo as an integral part of their nation and feel that the international community has no right to decide on whether Kosovo should be independent. Kosovo is currently officially a province of Serbia, but it is a protectorate the UN/NATO. The Albanians in the province feel that as a discriminated against minority in Serbia but the significant majority of Kosovo, they have a right to independence. An advisory group has been preparing to advise the UN Security Council on whether Kosovo should become an independent state their verdict has been expected for some time.

Today I was told that last summer the Serbian government was concerned about the imminent verdict (in favor of Kosovo) and so the parliament rapidly drafted and passed a new constitution which, among other things, had a specific clause declaring Kosovo an integral part of Serbia. Parliament was then disbanded and elections are being held on Sunday. It is now expected that the Kosovo Advisory panel will present their suggestions to the UN Security Council one week after elections. This way, when the verdict comes out the political party that is now in power cannot be blamed as the decision will have been made right after the election.

It is also expected that the Security Council will decide in favor of independence for Kosovo, which already has it’s own government in place. Of course a key to successful independence is economic security and Kosovo really has very few opportunities, with a population of two million living on poor agricultural lands and surviving on remittances, which are declining as Albanians return to Kosovo. If Kosovo is given their independence, it is unknown what the reaction will be, but there are plans being put in place to deal with any contingencies.

This is a very interesting time in this region’s history and I will be watch closely as events unfold over the next couple of weeks.